List of Variables in Handicapping Horses

Handicapping involves close examination of many factors, with the ultimate goal being to predict how a horse will run a race and in what place it will finish. A huge range of variables influences race outcomes, and handicappers try to factor the main variables into account when deciding how they think a particular horse will run that day. It would be impossible to factor every single variable in handicapping, so handicappers focus on a set of the variables believed to be most influential on a racehorse.

  1. Race History

    • Information about a horse's previous races gives bettors an idea as to how a horse will fare in future races. A horse's speed over longer and shorter distances identifies a horse as a sprinter or a distance runner, affecting its odds in races of differing lengths. Additionally, factors such as the track's condition, the number of horses in the race and the weight the horse was carrying provide insight into its strengths and weaknesses. Commentary on the horse's previous races can also be of importance, because such comments could identify if the horse ran into trouble or simply stopped trying to race after a certain period.

    Racing Surface

    • Tracks come in both dirt and grass surfaces, and just because a horse races well on one does not mean that it will be successful on another. Also playing into the equation is the weather: Excessive rain can turn a "fast," or firm, track into one of pure mud. Some horses run well in mud, and some falter in it. Whether a horse has been successful in the past on certain types of tracks can indicate if a certain track on a given day is a good fit for the horse.

    Breeding

    • A horse's bloodlines greatly affect its chance at winning a race. Horses with proven racing champions in their bloodlines are more likely to be successful at racing themselves, because they might have inherited some of the qualities, such as speed and heart, that made their parents or grandparents great. Additionally, physical characteristics such as height and leg length can be passed down to offspring to make them more successful runners.

    Racing Equipment

    • The introduction of new equipment such as blinkers can be both a positive and a negative factor in judging a horse's potential success in a race. Blinkers are used to help a horse focus on the race instead of on its surroundings, but some horses do not respond well to them, so if a horse wears them for the first time in a race the outcome is difficult to predict. The presence of bandages on a racehorse's front legs can signify a potential injury and does not bode well for a horse's race performance.

    Physical Condition

    • The fitness and condition of a horse at the time of the race give bettors an idea of the horse's potential race performance. Signs that a horse is in good physical health include a shiny coat, strong and full muscling through the shoulders and hindquarters, bright and alert eyes, and ears pointed up and forward. A horse that is playful or spirited while being led or saddled is also likely healthy and is feeling good, but a horse that greatly acts out before a race could wear itself out and not have enough energy left for the race itself.

    Humans Involved

    • Human factors such as the jockey, trainers and grooms involved with a horse cannot be ignored. Trainers who have been previously successful are more likely to bring another winner to the race than an unproven, inexperienced trainer. A jockey who is familiar with the horse and who has raced it successfully also adds to the horse's chances of winning in the future.