How to Pick Triple Crown Winners

Each year for six weeks from the first Saturday in May to early June horse racing takes center stage in the sports world as everyone waits to see if one 3-year-old can capture the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes to claim the Triple Crown. For bettors, there is money to make in each of the three races. An historical look at the three contests, and identifying horses prime to run a breakthrough race, can help make for a Triple Crown.

Things You'll Need

  • Daily Racing Form
Show More

Instructions

  1. Kentucky Derby

    • 1
      With up to 20 horses running, there is no reason to settle for short odds in the Derby.

      Look for a long shot in the Derby. With up to 20 3-year-olds racing 1 1/4-miles at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, there is no reason to settle for a short price. Derbys run from 2001-2010 saw just three favorites win. Two Derby winners were 50-1 and the average winner's odds for those races was 17-1, $36 for each $2 wagered to win.

    • 2
      Super Saver (white silks) won the 2010 Kentucky Derby at odds of 8-1.

      Focus on key Derby prep races to identify a horse rounding into peak shape for Kentucky's Run for the Roses. Each year there are Derby prep races across the country. The horse you are looking for does not have to win prep races, but should have the look of a horse who is improving. Prep races include the Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and Bluegrass.

    • 3

      Stick to your pick. The Kentucky Derby receives media coverage from TV, radio, print and the Internet. You will hear a lot of opinions in the days leading up to the race. With 20 horses battling for a piece of the racetrack, you need to have a great horse and some racing luck to get to the finish line first. Find that long shot and stick with it.

    Preakness and Belmont

    • 4
      Lookin At Lucky (7) won the 2010 Preakness after running sixth in the Kentucky Derby.

      Focus on horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby, when you're looking for your Preakness winner. From 2001-2010, eight of the 10 Preakness winners ran in the Kentucky Derby. Of those, four won the Kentucky Derby. Short-price horses also dominated the Preakness in those years. The average odds of Preakness winners was just 3-1, with the longest price being 13-1 in 2006 when Bernardini won in a race marred with the demise of Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro.

    • 5

      Do not be fooled into thinking the Belmont winner always comes from the back of the pack, because the race is 1-1/2 miles. From 2001-2010 eight Belmont winners were running sixth or better after the first half mile. Because the race is so long, the early pace is slow, which makes it very difficult for come-from-behind horses to win. Look for a horse that can run mid-pack early on, or a horse that may be loose on the lead setting slow fractions.

    • 6

      Like the Kentucky Derby, find a horse that offers value in the betting. The average odds for Belmont winners from 2001-2010 was 18-1. Da'Tara won in 2008 at 38-1, taking the field wire-to-wire. Birdstone won at 36-1 in 2004 and Sarava blew up the tote board in 2002 at 70-1.