How to Bet on NFL Games
Instructions
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Be aware of the head to head history of the two teams playing.
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Look up common opponents of the teams playing. This will reveal a lot about how the two teams will play out against each other.
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Study the Injury reports. Key positions like Quarterback will have a strong affect on the outcome when an injury is involved. Generally, the most critical injuries are those to the team's best players, regardless of position--the players that their systems most rely upon, be it a pass rushing defensive end or a big play wide receiver. Keep in mind that head coaches have been known to falsify their injury reports to gain a competitive advantage.
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Study the weather. Defensive minded teams tend to thrive in bad weather situations and offensive minded teams suffer. Warm climate teams usually have a harder time adjusting to different weather situations than cold climate teams. Dome conditions strongly favor home teams because the teams were built for that environment. Because of the seasons in which football is played, weather becomes more of a factor as the season progresses, and especially at playoff time.
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Study line movement. This is important to be aware of because lines change for a reason. Do your homework on what might be causing the line to change, but don't necessarily base your play on it.
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Consider offensive stats versus defensive. Let's say the team you're looking to bet on is last in defensive passing. If they are playing the number one rated passer in the league, you should do some major rethinking before you place the bet.
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Consider home teams and road teams. This will show in the spread, but you should still be aware if a team does not play well on the road, or if a team is a strong road team. Some teams actually thrive in road conditions.
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Turnovers and penalties. Costly mistakes like turnovers and penalties usually catch up to teams in the long run. Always consider a team's track record, especially when the line is close.
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Consider whether a team has had adequate preparation time. Monday Night Football plays into this. Football is a game of preparation and most teams aren't prepared to play after a short week.
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Consider strength of schedule. Playing powder puffs and winning doesn't necessarily mean you are going to beat an average record team who played top quality opponents. This is important because it takes more homework to look up a team's past results than to look at their plain record.
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Beware of teams coming off a huge win because these teams will more than likely have a letdown of some sort. Football is a sport that tests all assets of a player's fortitude, and big wins can leave a player satisfied and not as hungry to overcome the pressures of a follow up victory.
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