About Angles of Horse Racing Handicapping

Speed Figures

• When any handicapper picks up a copy of the "Daily Racing Form" or launches a computer program to help decipher a race, he often looks at the speed figures for each horse in the past performances (the list of each horse's past races and various statistics about their previous efforts). Speed figures, first popularized by famed handicapper Andrew Beyer in his seminal book, "Picking Winners," are numerical descriptions of how fast a horse has run each of its races. In the 1990s, the "Daily Racing Form" began supplying Beyer's speed figures (now known as "Beyers"), and now many websites that sell horse-racing programs (such as Equibase and Trackmaster) have developed their own speed figure algorithms. The fact that so many handicappers have access to speed figures limits their usefulness. The horse with the top speed figures frequently wins the race, but the payoff often does not adequately compensate for the betting risk because horses with superior speed figures are popular bets. Still, speed figures provide a useful method to narrow down contenders in a given race.

Trainer Handicapping

• The thoroughbred racehorse's trainer has always been respected for being able to bring out the animal's best performance. In recent years, the trainer has become a significant part of some handicapping methods. In the 2009 reissue of the pioneering book "Betting Thoroughbreds," Steve Davidowitz added a chapter on "The New Supertrainers," because he felt certain trainers won so frequently that it was worth noting in what situations they most often did so. Sometimes a horse dismissed as being a poor bet in a given race would go on to win because of the trainer's ability to improve its performance. Each trainer's winning percentage in various situations is indicated in the past performances, which also limits the financial benefits of the information. However, learning which trainers take horses to the winner's circle at the start of their racing careers or soon after acquiring them will give the handicapper an advantage over the competition. Tracking the amount of time a trainer allows certain horses to rest between races (known as the "layoff") and taking note of performance trends after short or long layoffs can also prove useful.

Pace Handicapping

• Pace handicappers follow the dictates of teachers like Howard Sartin and Tom Brohamer, who developed computer programs that apply "pace numbers" based on how fast a horse ran each part of a race. The idea behind pace handicapping is that the fastest horse early in a race is likely to get the lead, which will put it in front and make it most likely to win. Pace handicappers also emphasize the importance of knowing if a horse ran at an extraordinarily fast "pace" in its last race--while it may have run out of steam and finished behind other horses, that same pace may be enough to win a race against slower competitors. In the current race, the horse might be faster than its speed figures or past performances make it appear. Pace handicapping does have its shortcomings, however, because some aspects of a horse's performance are hard to quantify, such as the speed of the racetrack (determined by the surface and weather conditions). Horses are also difficult to compare because each has a unique racing history. Still, pace handicapping can offer insights on today's race that other handicappers might not see.

Class Handicapping

• At one time, a popular saying in horse racing was "Time only counts in jail." The reasoning behind this saying was that knowing the exact time horses ran was not that important; what mattered was the quality of their competition. A horse who ran a fast time in a claiming race would not be able to run as quickly against "classier" horses in a stakes race. While speed figure advocates ridicule this theory, class handicappers point to horses that perform poorly after stepping up to more expensive races as evidence that class does matter. Pure class handicapping might seem absurd--after all, if a horse can run fast, it can run fast no matter the class--but this strategy is still useful for comparing the different classes of animals at any racetrack to judge what competition they have been facing. For example, a horse that only wins races when it takes an early lead might step up in class and face animals that can run equally as fast early in the race, thus vastly decreasing its chances to win.

Physicality Handicapping

• Another school of handicappers determines their wagers based on their physical observations of horses. Since most people don't have daily hands-on contact with horses, they might not have the experience to be able to look at a horse and tell if it is fit and healthy or not in the mood to race. However, these skills can be learned. Joe Takach's popular "Beat the Beam" DVDs even explain how to make these judgments over a satellite feed rather than live at the racetrack. Takach advises handicappers to look for horses who are dappled and well-muscled, with shiny coats and tails lifted off their rumps. In general, these horses are ready to race. In addition, you can look for special shoes, cocked ears and the removal of leg bandages to indicate that a horse is fit. However, some horses can leave a poor visual impression and still win their races; they just don't carry themselves well. Handicapping based on physical appearance requires a lot of time and practice, because it is beneficial to know how the horse usually looks, which means watching many races at the tracks you want to bet. In other words, changes in appearance are more significant than simply observing how the horses look that day.