Bury Season Preview: back to basics

With the 2018-19 season around the corner, The Football Lab spoke to Shakers fan Peter Taylor, writer of Bury Me in Exile (@burymeinexile); as you’ll see below, Peter covers League Two in fabulous detail and is an absolute must-follow for EFL lovers.

After the club finished bottom of League One, 15 points adrift of safety, it’s fair to say Bury’s 2017-18 campaign was a complete disaster. Was it a case of the club stockpiling expensive individuals before it devised a coherent plan?

I said many times on my blog prior to the start of 2017/2018 that the ridiculously high turnover of players had to cease… and if anything, it increased under the shambolic leadership of Lee Clark.

Few would argue with the quality on paper of the vast majority of players brought into the club – the likes of Chris Maguire, Jay O’Shea, Harry Bunn and Jermaine Beckford had differing but demonstrable qualities. The latter’s season was ended in October by injury, and he still finished as joint top-scorer come May. The other three all failed to live up to expectations, ranging from moderately (O’Shea) to catastrophically (Maguire).

You can accept as a realist fan like I am that not every signing is going to come off. There are always variables that you don’t see from the stands and that can be hard to predict.

However, I had a theory that the culture from top to bottom was so rotten, that it had a deleterious effect on the players. Maguire’s body language was bordering on the unprofessional almost from the get-go, but as his move to Sunderland has shown, other clubs will still take a risk on someone like him because they know the talent he possesses.

Even though on the face of it, Clark was sacked swiftly, the mentality was hard to shift. He simply didn’t know how to utilise the versatility of players like O’Shea, and his public outbursts were the final straw for me, even as an advocate of giving managers much more time than they seem to receive in the modern game.

Ryan Lowe has been given the job permanently, despite overseeing just six wins in 25 games last term. Does his appointment imply a youth-centred focus? And does the rise of Callum Styles suggest that’s the way forward?

I think it could imply a youth-centred focus. Having been both a player and first team coach (as well as being in charge of the U23s’ run to the Lancashire Senior Cup final), he knows the quality of the academy setup.

That said, he has several times urged a cautious approach to blooding too many at once, although I don’t believe he’s of the mindset that if a particular individual is good enough, their age should preclude them from being in the senior squad.

Callum Styles has been in and around there for two years now, and he’s still only 18. At the time of writing, whether Lowe opts to deploy two or three in central midfield, he’ll almost certainly be one of those in the XI, especially given the very strong rumours that Stephen Dawson is heading towards the exit door.

Saul Shotton should receive many more first team chances as he has all the attributes required of a ball-playing centre-back, plus he’s left-footed, so it provides balance to any defensive shape Lowe devises.

I think the finances should, in one sense, give all the more focus to developing and selling on players from the academy. Many of the younger ones upstaged their more seasoned peers last time out, and there are ones coming through in almost every position, except up top.

Jermaine Beckford and new signing Chris Dagnall seem like similar types of strikers in that they both have experience and reasonable goalscoring records. Which forwards in your squad though do you see pressing and running the channels?

Beckford is unlikely to be back in contention until September, but his quality when fit (that being the operative phrase) is unquestionable. He’s more of a striker that can lead the line, plays on the shoulder of the last defender and can work the channels.

Chris Dagnall strikes me as someone who needs someone else there to get the most from him. He doesn’t have the same height, build or aerial prowess as Beckford.

Neither of them are slow despite being north of 30, and Dagnall is more versatile, being just at home as a wide right forward as he is through the middle.

The signings of both Gold Omotayo and Jordan Archer represent a shift in recruitment policy, spearheaded by the new Director of Sport, Lee Dykes.

They have both come from non-league clubs, both are 24 and their desire and hunger to impress at Bury is already clear. Archer can perform a similar role to Beckford or Dagnall.

Omotayo is more of a target man, but he has a good touch, and it will be intriguing to see which one adjusts to the fourth tier the quickest. I’m not expecting immediate results from either of them, but that doesn’t mean one or both can’t stake a claim to be in the XI, especially with lingering doubts over Beckford.

Stephen Dawson had huge injury problems last season. Is it starting to look like a mistake to hand him a three-year deal last summer or, if he stays, do you feel he could be especially valuable at this level once fully fit?

I didn’t like the fact that he was given that length of contract in the first place, especially when considering the injuries he’d sustained in the two years prior at Scunthorpe United, as well as his age.

Even if you’ve only seen him on the pitch for 10 minutes, you can tell he’s the kind of box-to-box, tough tackling midfielder, that treats every game the same, whether it’s a friendly or a cup tie against higher league opposition.

The injury he sustained so early on in 2017/2018 was his own fault, which he readily acknowledged but then said in the same breath, he’d do the same again.

When he came back (prematurely), he looked a shadow of the player Bury fans remembered so fondly from his first spell at the club. Even watching him tonight versus Everton, he still doesn’t look fully fit, and looks to be carrying a bit more weight than he ought to have.

Some supporters continually clamour for a 4-4-2, which in theory, is made for a player like Dawson. The reality is though that you need two central midfielders with incredible work rates and stamina to sustain that formation, and I just don’t think he possesses that anymore.

If he does leave as is rumoured, I’d like to see a younger replacement, preferably someone who’s more content to be the pivot at the base of the midfield, which will allow Styles and Neil Danns to get forward with less risk attached to them both doing so in the same move.

Defenders Tom Aldred and Will Aimson plus holding midfielder Neil Danns played together during Blackpool’s 2016-17 promotion campaign. Are you hoping they can forge an understanding?

Like Dawson, I think Tom Aldred’s days are numbered at Gigg Lane. He’s another I had high hopes for, especially after watching him several times for Blackpool.

Just like with so many others, he failed miserably in the white and royal blue, but miraculously improved elsewhere (at Motherwell in his case). That’s why I go back to the culture as my theory. He’s still coveted by the SPFL side, and I expect an offer to come in for him, which will probably be accepted.

He was the only senior player fit that didn’t feature against Everton tonight; indeed, he suffered the ignominy of starting with the U23s against Rhyl yesterday.

Will Aimson will probably be the starting right-sided centre back in a two, although he’ll face stiff competition from a seemingly rejuvenated Adam Thompson.

Aimson and Danns should have a decent understanding from their time together at Blackpool, but the lack of depth from a defensive point of view in midfield is a pressing issue in my eyes.

Danns is more inclined to go forwards when push comes to shove, and I’m really pleased he proved a lot of the doubters wrong last season, including Lee Clark, who believed he was finished as a professional footballer.

You’ve got a 36-year-old goalkeeper in Joe Murphy and a 19-year-old in Matthew Hudson, on loan from Preston. Are Murphy’s reflexes still strong enough and can Hudson adjust instantly to the professional game?

I don’t think Joe Murphy’s reflexes are the issue. Again, as with others I’ve mentioned, it’s his injury record that concerns me.

Matthew Hudson’s arrival is a tacit acknowledgement that the more experienced custodian is unlikely to feature every single week, possibly not even on a Saturday and the following Tuesday.

Hudson arrives with glowing references from Preston North End, and Alex Neil wouldn’t have given his blessing to travel to the south-eastern part of Lancashire, had he not received certain assurances from Lowe regarding his game time.

I’m not too concerned about Hudson’s adjustment to the professional game. He already has the height and physique to make it as a goalkeeper and, under the coaching of Brian Jensen and Murphy himself, he should develop well over the season.

His distribution will be a key factor in Bury retaining the ball better than they did last year, as it would often be wayward from goal kicks.

Right-backs Phil Edwards and Ryan Cooney both strike me as a tad conservative in possession. Are you hoping new signing Tom Miller might offer a bit more going forward?

Phil Edwards is another who I don’t envisage staying. He was utilised poorly and even in his preferred right-back role, he looked ponderous all too often.

The switch from central midfield to right (wing) back for Ryan Cooney was one of the minor success stories for Bury in 2017/2018. He still has considerable work to do on his positional awareness and being turned a little too easily, but he’s adapting to a new role and is calm in possession, a trait he’s brought over from his playmaking days in the academy, where he had been since the age of eight.

Tom Miller can operate more naturally as a wing-back than Edwards or Cooney has shown to date, and also has the added advantage of being a threat from long throw-ins.

Dougie Nyaupembe was given his first professional contract in the close season, and he too is a right-back, but one with raw pace.

His presence, coupled with Miller’s signing, only adds fuel to the fire that Edwards will be gone soon. Bury won’t start the campaign with four right-backs!

Joe Skarz is your only obvious left-back at the time of writing (although Chris Stokes has been linked). With Greg Leigh gone, is this an area that needs strengthening?

Since this question was posed, Chris Stokes has indeed signed. Callum McFadzean has also been on an extended trial (and started tonight against Everton).

Both Stokes and Joe Skarz are conservative left-backs. Neither of them have the pace to operate as wing-backs, and both of them can play as left-sided centre-backs in a three, which does open the door to two of trio being in the same starting line-up.

Doubts remain in my mind about Skarz, in terms of his persistent injuries (a recurring theme at Bury). Stokes was part of a successful Coventry City side, featuring in 29 of their league games.

I don’t think Greg Leigh will be missed, as all three players mentioned here have better defensive positioning, and I’d personally rather see a flat back four, where the full-backs only push up when Bury are either comfortably winning or to create overloads down a flank when chasing a result.

Leigh would all too often leave huge gaps down his wing, when he invariably gave away possession with a poor cross or an intercepted pass. He did have many qualities, but his final ball was not one of them.

Two of your first signings were Nicky Adams and Byron Moore. Does this suggest that you will play with wingers?

I’m not sold on Byron Moore just yet. I want to give him sufficient time in competitive matches before coming to any firm conclusions. My initial reaction to his capture was ‘why?’.

At the time, both Joe Adams and Wealth Da Silva were on the books. The latter has since rejected the offer of his first pro deal and has been released, which was a strange decision from the player (and undoubtedly influenced by his agent).

Moore is like Nicky Adams, in the sense that they can comfortably play on either flank. Moore is probably the quicker of the two, but found regular game-time hard to come by last season for Bristol Rovers.

Adams spent the majority of Carlisle United’s unsuccessful push for the play-offs on the sidelines. His preferred side is now on the left, but he can perform as an attacking midfielder in a more central area.

I’m hoping his namesake Joe Adams will get his chance to shine at some stage. Even at the age of 17, he offers something different to any winger on the books and he’s strong with both feet.

More inverted wide men such as Danny Mayor and Jay O’Shea have performed well at League Two level recently. Why do you think they struggled in League One?

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Danny Mayor has struggled for two years with persistent, niggly injuries.

Lowe says he’s now fully fit but even if that truly is the case, he looks to have lost what made him such a threat prior to that. You know he’s always going to come inside on his right foot. He seldom crossed or gets into the area, so it’s rare to see him involved in more than one phase of play. That for me isn’t good enough.

Nicky Adams is a harder worker and will track back more. Tellingly, he will put an accurate ball in from deep or the byline, and sometimes on his weaker side. That invariably gives opposition defenders more cause for concern.

In the case of O’Shea, he was injured in the very first game of last season. He and Maguire were the wide men that day, and that didn’t happen after that match ever again. I think O’Shea is perceived to have struggled because in truth, the whole team was struggling by then.

I don’t think he fits into a conventional 4-4-2 or 3-5-2, as he’s someone who wants to have a relatively free role and both shapes demand someone with more than half an eye on their defensive duties.

Having two playmakers in the same team is likely to be a luxury too far for Lowe, although if he does come back from his latest knock, he’s an excellent candidate to play in behind the main striker with his late runs into the area and accurate shooting from range.

Bury aside, what are your thoughts ahead of the League Two season as a whole? Any potential dark horses for you?

The league is even more open than in recent reasons. Previously, there have always been at least two outstanding candidates for promotion and a dead cert for relegation.

Accrington Stanley proved last season that not having the biggest budget doesn’t preclude a side from success, and they were deserved winners of the division.

Once again, Mansfield Town have made some decent acquisitions, but any team with David Flitcroft at the helm will struggle for consistency. The knives will be out if they don’t hit the ground running.

Notts County will be there or thereabouts, as they possess the creativity and firepower to win tight games. It’s not a dissimilar story at Lincoln City, and they hade the best management team in League Two.

As for a dark horse, I think Port Vale will massively improve on their dismal showing in 2017/2018. Louis Dodds and Ricky Miller will ease the burden on Tom Pope considerably, and the defence looks to have a better structure.

Where will you finish?

I’ve noted that up until now, only one other person has mentioned Bury as a side to look out for. The signings have been decidedly more low-key than some of the other favourites, judging by the bookies’ early odds.

This is a deliberate move by the club to return to a ‘back to basics’ approach, and there is still some wiggle room to sign one or two more, particularly in defensive midfield, whilst waving goodbye to the more vaunted personnel I’ve mentioned above.

Creating and finishing chances might initially be a struggle, but they should be a lot harder to carve open. Ultimately, I want to see a top-half finish, with some more academy prospects in and around the first team squad.

That would represent success, although there is the potential for a play-off push if Lowe can be more tactically savvy than he has hitherto demonstrated.

Thanks to Peter for his answers. The Football Lab’s verdict on Bury can be found on We Love Betting from late July.