Preston v Brentford: goals without Hogan

Do Smith and O’Kelly deserve new deals?

When these teams last met at Griffin Park back in September, Brentford won 5-0, but that should not be used as a yardstick for what to expect.

For a start, everyone who attended that game will say the scoreline was an unfair reflection on the balance of play. Preston dominated at the start of both halves and four of Brentford’s goals came in the last 16 minutes, when their opponents were chasing the game.

The Bees picked up 23 points from the following 20 games, while Preston have amassed 35 from 22. The Lilywhites are not struggling without centre-back Bailey Wright as much as could be expected, keeping a clean sheet against Barnsley last time out. The ever-reliable Tommy Clarke partnered Paul Huntington successfully at Oakwell, but that goalless draw did little to help their faint play-off hopes.

Brentford’s top six aspirations ended weeks ago, so positive recent performances have longer-term implications. Their new signings – Florian Jozefzoon along with returning Sergi Canos and Jota, the latter key to a play-off finish in 14/15 – add pace in attack. The team beat Aston Villa 3-0, a match which saw some fine individual displays with Ryan Woods dictating play from the middle of the park.

Scott Hogan has moved to the Villa since scoring a hat-trick against North End, but Lasse Vibe has limited that blow by leading the line well of late. A strong performance against leaders Brighton has improved morale, even if a last minute equalizer denied them three points to go with another three goals. That display was enough to convince the board to extend Dean Smith and Richard O’Kelly’s contract until 2019.

The duo have done reasonably well within their budgetary constraints and the same can be said of Simon Grayson. His side have battled back to snatch unlikely points against Ipswich, thanks to Jordan Hugill’s 89th minute equalizer and at Villa Park, where the striker netted a second half brace.

And yet, while the increasingly likely 12th-9th place finish would represent a good season for Preston, it may also be tinged with disappointment. There have been times when his side have gone on a mini-run and looked capable of troubling the top six, then showed a lack of attacking intent from the start of subsequent games. That happened in November with the two home draws against Wolves and Burton, a similar pattern occurring in the last four weeks that followed an impressive 2-0 win over Brighton.

The Lancashire side need at least 10 points from their next four over February to have a chance of getting into the top six. While their defence is sturdier than the one that played the final 16 minutes at Griffin Park last time out, they may not have the cutting edge to get the results they need.

The Football Lab’s Verdict: 1-1