Are Fulham unlucky?

Joka’s Fulham hard done by?

‘There’s only one F in Fulham’ – and judging by this season, it doesn’t stand for fortune. If Slavisa Jokanovic’s side miss out on a play-off place, this season will be a source of frustration and encouragement in equal measure.

They boast arguably the best midfield in the Championship. The advanced creativity of Tom Cairney, the relentless energy of Stefan Johansen and the metronomic control of Kevin McDonald form a perfect blend. The team’s expected goals record is currently 1.7 per game (Experimental 361), the highest in the Championship.

From 12 games against the teams above Fulham, they have scored 25 and conceded 13. They put in an impressive performance against Newcastle on the opening day, twice comfortably beaten Barnsley and attained 5-0 home wins over Reading and Huddersfield. Those two, along with Sheffield Wednesday, have a far worse Expected Goals record than Fulham. They have picked up an abnormal proportion of their wins by one goal, often in fortuitous circumstances.

Sheffield Wednesday swept aside Wolves at the end of November, but not since put in a similar performance. They ground out wins against the odds, with 10 men against Preston and away to leaders Newcastle in a tactically savvy display, but have otherwise been unconvincing.

In the interests of balance, the Owls were unlucky to lose in December at Reading. The third place Royals play tidy football at times but rely largely on set plays and have a similar Expected Goals record to Brentford and Burton. Huddersfield have shown a great spirit this season, but whether their wonderful performance against Brighton quite encapsulates the nature of their matches to date is questionable.

That is not to say those teams do not deserve to be in the top six. However, they have had slices of luck along the way that have not quite happened to Fulham. The Cottagers were drawing at Birmingham until Ryan Fredericks’ late sending off. At Reading, the Royals scored from the rebound of a penalty before Chris Martin saw his saved late on.

Fulham dominated the first half in both of their 2-1 defeats second placed Brighton and are unlucky not to have taken at least two points off the Seagulls. They dominated at home to Burton and Derby but drew, also missing two penalties to inexplicably lose to West London rivals QPR at the start of October.

While they have not had too much misfortune with injuries, tactical consistency can be of most importance at centre-back, the area most affected. Tomas Kalas, arguably the team’s best defender, has missed eight games. Ragnar Sigurdsson, Michael Madl and Tim Ream have each started between 11 and 14 in the league, making it difficult for Slavisa Jokanovic to find a settled partnership in that area.

Considering the above, Fulham have done reasonably well to accumulate 1.5 points per game. In Leagues One and Two, Millwall and Mansfield respectively have effectively the same record and could mathematically go into the play-off places this weekend. By contrast, if Championship teams continue at their current rate, Fulham will need two points per game between now and the end of the season to get there.

That kind of return is not impossible, but it is a big ask. Their performance levels have been easily good enough for a top six finish, if not more, but a combination of defensive instability, missed penalties and bad luck in the box has hindered their chances.