Four reasons why Lansdown is right to stick with Johnson

Lee Johnson under pressure

Lee Johnson’s tenure as Bristol City manager is on a knife-edge. Chairman Steve Lansdown has told BBC Points West that the 35-year-old has his full support, despite an eight game losing streak. Johnson has admitted that he is ashamed of that run, an unwanted club record that has not been matched by a Championship side for at least 10 years. It would appear that a large proportion of Robins fans want him gone, a feeling tinged with regret due to the club’s connection with the Johnson family. However, this blog would argue that the club is right to stand by him: here is why.

Overall results

Under Johnson, they have won 39% of their matches, which is a respectable return. Bristol City won 15% of their Championship games under Steve Cotterill, who admittedly did not spend too much, but kept hold of every piece from arguably one of the best third tier title-winners of all time. Johnson’s record is 2% higher than that of Fulham under Slavisa Jokanovic, who has been rightly credited with instilling a strong spirit at Craven Cottage. It is 0.5% lower than Birmingham under Gary Rowett, the dismissal of whom many deem to be ludicrous. Granted, in the aforementioned cases, there were more draws than the six in 49 under Lee Johnson, but his record does not compare badly with that of managers many feel have done good jobs.

One run doesn’t define a manager

When Lee Johnson was first appointed Bristol City boss, this blog was in fact sceptical of the hype that surrounded him. That was because he had enjoyed good runs of form at previous clubs, Oldham and Barnsley, but left before achieving anything of substance. He was being prematurely billed as one of England’s bright young coaches, without having proven himself over a whole season. Now results are going badly for him, he is prematurely perceived to be out of his depth. Somewhere between ‘future England manager’ and ‘utterly useless’ lies the real Lee Johnson – he just needs a sustained period of time at a club to reveal his true ability.

Stats suggest luck will change

In Bristol City’s last six games, they have scored eight goals and conceded 15. However, their Expected Goals tally in that same timeframe (Experimental 361) is 9.2 scored (eighth best) and 9.9 conceded (19th best) – which would put them 14th on performance data. This would suggest that the bad results are down to a lack of confidence in both boxes, good opposition goalkeeping and an ounce of bad luck, rather than wider issues that require structural changes.

Problems can be solved

The main concern among Bristol City fans are: 1) the concession of costly late goals – seven in the last 15 minutes of the last six games: This is not an insignificant problem, but one much easier to address than if the team is getting outplayed every week, which EG stats suggest is not to be the case. 2) the team is changed too much: This is more likely to be solved by Johnson than a new manager, who has to assess the squad from scratch. 3) the football has been too direct: a lot of the current managers who are available also favour direct football.

While it is understandable that some feel a change is needed to arrest this freakish slump, this blog would argue that Johnson is the man to put things right.