How to Predict Upsets During March Madness

The NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament generates excitement through last-second buzzer-beater shots, standout performances and surprising upsets. Fans scramble to find an upset in the making to get the upper hand in office pools, online contests and friendly wagers with friends. While many of the bracket busters are surprises, there might be a method to March Madness.

Things You'll Need

  • NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket
  • Newspaper or sports magazine
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Instructions

  1. Picking Upsets in the NCAA Basketball Tournament

    • 1
      Knowledge is power and the NCAA Tournament is no exception to the rule.

      Do some research. The internet sports dozens of sites predicting how the tournament will go down. Gather information from only reputable websites. The CBS Sports website usually has solid information, as does ESPN. Your local newspaper likely prints a summary of each team in the tournament, as do several sports magazines. The NCAA Selection Show, broadcasted the Sunday before the tournament begins, is a valuable source of information since it's when the selected teams are announced.

    • 2

      Look at the underdog team's stats. These are teams highlighted on sports websites or by commentator's as being "sleepers" who may not even be ranked in the top 25 nationally. If the team has three or four guys that average 10 or more points a game, strong rebounders and their opponents average low point totals, they may be worth a second look A team that evenly distributes scoring, creates second chances for themselves with rebounds and plays good defense will likely compete well against opponents.

    • 3

      Study the past few NCAA tournaments and the regular seasons, looking for teams who have pulled off upsets or came very close. Avoid picking small schools who have no history of playing in big games, as they often struggle against teams from strong conferences who have played tough games all year.

    • 4

      Examine the matchup. Occasionally a low seed will have a 7-foot player at center against a smaller front court. Also look for situations where a high seed might have trouble against a zone defense (where defenders cover an area of the court rather than a specific player), which the underdog may excel at.

    • 5

      Scan the rosters. Does the 14th seed have mostly seniors and juniors on their team? Games involving low seeds led by upperclassmen against higher ranked teams with less experienced players can produce upsets. George Mason made the Final Four in 2006 with upperclassmen who played team basketball exceptionally well after having played together for two to three years.

    • 6

      Trust your instincts. This step may be the most important of all. Don't pick a team just because everyone else is. If you "just have a feeling" that 15th-seed Hampton is going to upset second-seed Iowa State, go for it. The worst bracket busters are the ones where you picked the favorite to be safe, only to kick yourself while watching the highlight reels.