How to predict the Final Four

The NCAA Men's College Basketball Tournament spawns office pools nationwide. "Who do you have in your Final Four?" becomes the most asked question as mid-March approaches. How do you select the top teams? How can you avoid a bracket-buster knocking out your Final Four pick in the first round? The truth is that you can't. The unpredictability of the tournament is what makes it so exciting. However, certain indicators of magic (and danger) are present every year, and these can act as a compass toward picking a winner of a bracket.

Things You'll Need

  • NCAA tournament bracket
  • Computer with Internet access
  • Newspaper or sports magazine
  • Television
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Instructions

    • 1

      Watch the NCAA Selection Show. The show announces the tournament field on live national television the Sunday evening before the tournament begins. The information given can be essential toward making your picks. Pay attention to which teams might have the easiest path to the Final Four.

    • 2

      Discount the conference tournaments. Fans often jump on the bandwagon of a team that surprisingly wins its conference tournament. Frequently, these teams expend so much energy in the conference tournament that they disappoint in the Big Dance. A good example is the 2006 Iowa Hawkeyes, who upset Ohio State in the conference tournament, only to lose in the first round of the NCAA tournament to 14-seed Northwestern State.

    • 3

      Pay attention to rebounding and defense. Defense wins championships. So does rebounding. Teams that force their opponents into low percentage shots and cause turnovers tend to go deep into March. Squads who dominate the boards also own a significant advantage.

    • 4

      Stick to the higher seeds. While it's tempting to take Cinderella to the Final Four, most Final Four teams are no lower than a three-seed. While it's true that Villanova and NC State won championships as lower teams, the reason those feats are so famous is because they are so rare.

    • 5

      Go with your gut. Don't let experts persuade you into going against a feeling that one team is going to get hot. Few things are worse than watching highlights of a team that you were scared to pick upsetting the consensus champion.