Horse Handicapping Methods

There have been hundreds if not thousands of systems designed to pick winners in horse racing through the years. Each of these systems, called handicapping by horseplayers, attempts to use measurements and statistics to predict horse performance and facilitate winning bets. Many horseplayers use combinations of handicapping methods as well as other less systematic measures such as observing horses' behavior before races and favoring horses on winning streaks.

  1. Speed Handicapping

    • Speed handicapping is concerned only with the overall time it took a horse to run a fixed distance on a course, and uses speed factors as its primary measure of a horse’s ability to perform. Speed factors are determined by setting the course’s record time for the distance of the race at a baseline of 100, then adjusting a horse’s speed factor for every 0.2 second slower than the record it ran. Horses that ran faster than the course record on other tracks may get speed ratings higher than the 100 that signifies a track record. Comparing tracks becomes difficult, making speed handicapping best suited for a field with a large number of horses that run primarily on the same track.

    Pace Handicapping

    • Pace handicapping looks beyond a horse’s lap times to focus on the style of race the horse and jockey prefer to run, then examines the pack and attempts to determine how the race will play out and which running style has an advantage. Speed horses get out of the gate quickly but may tire by the end of the race. Stalkers are horses that remain in close pursuit of the leader and make a final move in the homestretch, while closers hang back and make an all-or-nothing sprint at the end. The number of each kind of horse determines the pace of the race—a field with many speed horses will tend to run faster and risk fatigue toward the end—and gives gamblers a means to predict a horse’s performance.

    Class Handicapping

    • In order to keep the racing competitive, tracks run several classes of races, awarding more money to the placers in higher classes. Trainers may enter their horses into classes as they see fit, moving them up when they’re running well and dropping them when they’re slow. Horses running in lower classes than usual may face less competition and have an edge over the field.

    Position Handicapping

    • A horse's distance from the starting post may give it an advantage. Horses closer to the inside rail travel a shorter distance around the course than those that start on the outside edge.

    Bloodline Handicapping

    • When a horse doesn't have a lot of races in its history, its breeding can indicate how well it may perform. Some horses are known to sire lines that mature earlier than usual, giving the young horses an advantage in races as 2-year-olds, for example. Although breeding may show a horse's potential, the steed's performance on the track is hard to judge simply by its bloodline, making bloodline handicapping an unreliable method when used by itself.