How to Pick the Wild Card in Football

Each year, only 12 of the 32 teams in the National Football League advance to the postseason. Since the league realigned in 2002 to eight divisions in each conference, the number of wildcard teams dropped from six to four. The complex tiebreaker procedure for wildcard teams usually has fans and media scrambling in the final weeks of the regular season to create all the scenarios in which a team can earn one of the two wildcard berths in its conference.

Instructions

  1. Initial Determination

    • 1

      Separate the conference results and standings at the end of the regular season.

    • 2

      Assign playoff berths and top four seedings in the playoffs to the four division champions in each conference.

    • 3

      Assign wildcard berths with the fifth and sixth seeds to the teams with the two best records from the remaining 12 teams in each conference. It is rarely this easy, however. A wildcard tiebreaker was necessary every year but one from the 2002 realignment through the 2009 season.

    Breaking a Tie between Two Teams

    • 4

      Look for head-to-head results. If two teams with identical records played each other during the season, the victor of that game secures the berth.

    • 5

      Compare the records of each team in the 12 games against their intraconference foes. The team with the better record wins the tiebreaker.

    • 6

      Compare the results of the teams against common opponents, as long as they have at least four common opponents. The team with the better record against common opponents would earn the berth.

    • 7

      Look at the strength of each team's victories. The team whose defeated opponents had a better combined record will advance with the wildcard berth. For example, in 2006, the New York Giants beat out Green Bay because the Giants' beaten foes had a combined winning percentage of .422, while those who lost to Green Bay had a winning percentage of only .383.

    • 8

      Compare the strength of schedule overall in the same way you compared the strength of victories for each team. The team with a "tougher" schedule--or whose opponents had the better combined record--earns the berth.

    • 9

      Calculate the combined ranks in the conference of each team's scoring offense and its scoring defense.

      If the combined ranking in the conference is equal, use the combined rankings for the entire NFL.

    • 10

      Compare the point differential in conference games for both teams. The team that outscored its conference opponents by wider margins earns the berth. If this is equal, use the teams' point differential for all games played.

    • 11

      Award the berth to the team that scored more net touchdowns in all games.

    • 12

      Flip a coin if the teams are still equal after the first 10 tiebreakers.

    Tiebreakers with Three or More Teams

    • 13

      Use the divisional tiebreakers--if two of the teams are from the same division--to eliminate the lower team from contention. For example, if Washington, Dallas and Atlanta are all tied with similar records, eliminate Washington or Dallas first since they play in the same conference. The remaining team's record will be compared to Atlanta using the two-team tiebreaker.

      The divisional tiebreaker is the same as the two-team tiebreaker for the wildcard, with one addition. After head-to-head record, the second tiebreaker is the record of each team within the division.

    • 14

      Use a head-to-head tiebreaker only if the three teams have each played each other.

    • 15

      Go to the second tiebreaker for two teams, intraconference record, and continue to cycle through the two-team tiebreakers until all but one team is eliminated.