How to Pick Football Teams

Picking the winners of football games can be a leisure activity or a means of serious gambling. Methods include picking which team will win outright, in which case better payoffs are given for betting on the weaker team correctly, or against "the spread," a number of points that, if added to the weaker team's score, gives an equal chance of either team scoring more points.

Instructions

    • 1

      Review the spreads on the game. Spreads are published every day in newspaper sports sections and also can be found on the "Scores" sections of sports websites. If you are betting against the spread, you must know the latest lines, and if you are betting straight up, it helps to know which team is favored to win.

    • 2

      Review expert picks for the week. Every major sports site will post picks for football games several days before the games are played, with opinions and, often, expected scores as they predict what team will win each game that week. By seeing what the experts are predicting, you can increase your ability to accurately pick winners.

    • 3

      Consider where the game is being played. Home-field advantage usuall is assumed to be worth about three points, meaning two even teams playing would have an expected result of a three-point victory for the home side. Trends such as warm-weather teams or dome teams struggling in cold-weather games, or the difficulties West Coast teams often have when playing a 1 p.m. EST game, should be considered.

    • 4

      Research each team's recent results. A 5-4 team that struggled early can be playing better in recent weeks than a 6-3 team that stormed out to a 5-0 record. If a team is on a long winning streak against solid opponents, it is playing good football, regardless of the team's overall record.

    • 5

      Pick the games you think have too big a spread. If you think a team is likely to win by four points and the spread is giving its opponent three points, it is not a particularly safe pick--you expect your team to perform only one point better than the spread. But if a team is a 10-point underdog and you expect it to lose by only three points, it is a good game to pick because the team appears undervalued, in your view.