Sports Handicapping Tools
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Keep A Journal
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As Brad Free explains in "Handicapping 101," handicappers should create a journal to keep notes of the condition of the entrants. Arrive at the track early and examine the behavior of the horses. Notice which horses appear to lack energy on that day. Read the "Daily Racing Form" to determine which horses have won at the distance they are going to compete. If the horse has only won shorter races, perhaps it will lack the necessary stamina to win this race. If the horse has only won at longer distances, perhaps it will start too slowly and will not catch the pack.
Have A Plan
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Free recommends that the wagerer should have a plan. He recommends ranking the entrants by their probability of winning the race. First, read "The Racing Form" to note how many times the horse has won on the type of track, whether it is a dirt or grass track. A horse that has won once in five races on a dirt track has a winning probability of 20 per cent on a dirt track. Compare the winning probability of each horse to the odds it is given to win the race. A horse that has a winning probability of 33 percent should only be bet to win if the odds are listed at two to one or better, which means that two dollars will be paid for each dollar that is wagered. A horse with a 20 percent winning probability should be wagered only if the odds are four to one or better.
Do Not Deviate
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Free emphasizes the importance of sticking to your plan. Remain confident regardless of the outcome of a single race. Remember, you are not betting against the track, you are betting against the other bettors. If the odds turn out to be inaccurate on a particular day, it only means that the wagerers were not correct that day. This is because the odds are created using the accumulation of all of the bets that are placed. The track creates the odds to ensure that it makes a profit. Changing from one system to another after one losing day only causes you to start over with a new plan, it does not increase your future success rate.
Use Mutiple Sources
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According to Free, another valuable information source is "The Handicapper's Report." This report provides additional insight into each horse's performance, such as its performance in poor weather. Information is provided on the type of race that a horse is likely to win. Does it win by coming from behind? Does it perform well if it comes down the stretch in a congestion of horses, or is it only able to win if it gets a lead and runs alone? Determine which scenario is likely to occur based on the horses that are entered in the race.
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