How to Read LRMC Rankings in March Madness

The LRMC (Logistic Regression Markov Chain) is a college basketball computer ranking system whose information is used by fans throughout the basketball season, especially during "March Madness," a three-week period where the NCAA conducts a 68-team single elimination basketball tournament. It is also possible for the NCAA basketball selection committee to use the LRMC in guiding them in their at-large selection. The LRMC uses basic scoreboard data, such as which teams are playing, where the game is played and the margin of victory. The LRMC data also includes the quality of each team's results and a strength of schedule component. According to Dr. Joel Sokol, who created the LRMC system along with fellow Georgia Tech Professor Dr. Paul Kvam, the LRMC "objectively measures each team's performance in every game it plays and mathematically balances all of the outcomes to determine an overall ranking." There are three versions of the LRMC -- Pure LRMC, Bayesian LRMC and LRMC (0). All three versions are competitive when compared to the other rankings systems being used. The difference being The Pure and Bayesian versions use the margin of victory in their calculations while the LRMC (0) does not.

Things You'll Need

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Instructions

  1. The Basics of the LRMC

    • 1
      LRMC has dunked the competition when it comes to picking NCAA Tournament winners.

      Start on the left side of the rankings table and move right when examining the rankings. The first component of the table is the Bayesian LRMC rankings. This component is the main part of the ranking system (the result of the mathematical calculation of the information). Teams are ranked 1 through 346 with 1 being the best and 346 being the worst. According to the LRMC website, the Bayesian LRMC has been found to have predicted slightly better results than the Pure version.

    • 2
      "March Madness" is an excting time for fans.

      Move on to the next two components, which lists the name of the school that achieved the ranking and its conference affiliation.

    • 3
      When selecting Final four teams, LRMC has hit "nothing but net" correctly predicting 30 out of the 36 participants in the past nine NCAA tournaments.

      Continue on to the next component, which is the beginning of the information the LRMC uses to calculate its final rankings. The first item listed is the team's record in games vs. Division I opponents (the LRMC doesn't calculate games played by a Division I institution against non-Division I institutions). The material listed under this component includes the win and record of the team and also the average rank of their opponent.

    • 4
      Free-throws can be a key factor whether a team advances in the NCAA tournament or doesn't.

      Read directly below the win and loss total in the Division I component. LRMC has broken down the wins and losses into wins in regulations, losses in regulations and number of games that went into overtime.

    Calculating the LRMC

    • 5
      Where a team plays is a factor that LRMC considers in its calcualations.

      Continue on to the next three components, which is a further breakdown of the team's wins and losses. These items include the team's record and quality of the opponent at home, on the road and at a neutral site. Like with the regulation wins, the information that is listed is the win and loss record, average rank of the opponent and a breakdown showing the regulation wins, losses and games in overtime.

    • 6
      The strength of a team's schedule is a vital component of the LRMC.

      Move right to the next two components, which includes the team's record versus conference and non-conference opponents. LRMC doesn't differentiate between conference and non-conference opponents so the information isn't used in their calculations. Also, the same information is listed as it was in the home, road and neutral court components.

    • 7
      Though there are two-months remaining until "Selection Sunday," the countdown is on.

      Resume reading to the end of the rankings where LRMC has broken down the team's record versus teams ranked one through 25, 25 through 50 and overall record against the top 50 teams. LRMC further breaks down the component into games versus 51 through 100, 101 through 200 and teams that are ranked lower than 201.