Plymouth Argyle Season Preview: authority for Adams

With the 2018-19 League One season coming soon, The Football Lab spoke to Plymouth Argyle fan Nick Saunders-Smith (@Saunders_Smith) from the excellent Argyle Life.

You had another impressive season in 2017-18, just missing out on the League One play-offs. Presumably in October, Argyle fans had anticipated a very different battle?

In general, yes. Most fans were trying to work out how the team would get to the magical 50 points mark which usually is needed for safety. After losing to Fleetwood, Argyle’s had won just one match of 15 (two more if you include penalty shootouts), had seen five players sent off and our first choice ‘keeper, right-back and striker had picked up long term injuries – most fans expressing their opinions were calling for Adams’ departure. That’s not even mentioning the goalkeeper crisis, which resulted in Argyle setting a club record (and possibly a record in all of footballing history) of seven different goalkeepers playing for a side in the same season, all by December.

It definitely wasn’t all doom and gloom though. The club had been in far more precarious spots in recent seasons, and it’s fair to say that many probably expected an upturn in results once Adams was to be inevitably replaced. I defended him for a while, but turned after the loss to Fleetwood, at which point it appeared he had fully lost control. Funnily enough, the next game was when the turnaround began.

Derek Adams has signed a new five-year contract that sees his job title changed to ‘Head of Football’, a term to befit his overarching club-wide development role. Is that a sign of the trust chairman James Brent has placed in him?

As you describe in the question, it’s more a title to acknowledge the greater influence he has at the football club than most current head coaches and managers. Added to this is the change in CEO at the club this summer, which probably provided the opportunity to officially alter his role to reflect this.

Regardless, I don’t doubt for a minute that Brent has total confidence in Adams – had there been anything more than the slightest of concerns he probably would have been relieved of his duties in October. I believe I read somewhere, prior to or shortly after his takeover of the club, that one of Brent’s greatest strengths in business has been his recruiting, and he has certainly seemed to get every recruitment decision at Home Park right so far! I think that once he settles on his man, he’s keen to give him every opportunity to get it right, and Adams has certainly done that so far. He earned his loyalty during the first two years, and that paid off when he needed it early last season.

When you struggled at the start of the season, there were suggestions that Graham Carey was a tad off form. How important was his resurgence from October onwards?

I don’t think Carey was off form, though he certainly wasn’t playing at his highest level. People are too quick to search for an easy explanation, and your best player failing to live up to high standards is usually a favoured one. In reality it was a number of factors, instability being the main one: five red cards in twelve matches; three key injuries; other players failing to step up in their absence.

For example, up to Argyle’s second win of the season against Wimbledon in late October, on average Adams made more than three changes to his line up per game. Once the team started to settle in the Autumn and Adams found a better way of getting Carey involved further up the pitch with a bit of support, he started to pick up more goals and assists. As the team improved, so did Carey. Having said that, he was effectively a one-man attacking force in October, so I can see why it appears that way from the outside looking in.

Derek Adams experimented with Ruben Lameiras as a false nine at times last season. Do you feel you’re at your best though when you have a bigger striker – like Ryan Taylor or Alex Fletcher – who occupy the centre-backs?

I wouldn’t say he experimented per se, as it was out of necessity: he only played there for three games at the end of the season when no other strikers were available bar Alex Fletcher, a first-year professional.

For the past two seasons Adams has relied strictly on a target man to lead the line, with the intention of getting the team up the field and laying the ball off to other attackers: first it was Jimmy Spencer, then it was Ryan Taylor. In fact, Taylor was the only player able to play the role in our squad last season – neither Ciftci, nor Jervis, nor Blissett exhibited the qualities needed. I know it’s a crude measure of performance, but the basic statistics demonstrate how important Taylor was: with him last season, on average, Argyle won three-times more matches, scored more than double the goals per game and conceded one-third fewer.

That’s not to say that Taylor is irreplaceable, but that nobody else in the squad was up to the playing that position. Especially since Adams switched to a 4-3-2-1, with Carey and Lameiras floating in attacking midfield, Taylor’s role in the side became even more important as a means of getting those two in possession behind the opposition’s midfield. No doubt this will be the same style of play for next season, as Adams has already brought in two direct replacements for Taylor in Calum Dyson and Freddie Ladapo – Ladapo in particular has stood out in pre-season.

Jamie Ness couldn’t start as often as he might have liked last season due to injuries. Are you hoping he can form a consistent partnership with David Fox this year?

It won’t be a partnership as much as a trio: Fox in the regista role, Sarcevic and Ness playing ahead of him. The three of them helped provide a near perfect balance to the side last season, as each brought a slightly different style of play which complemented the others.
Fox operates as a lower league Pirlo, dictating the play: in the 4-3-2-1, Fox averages 38 completed passes per 90 minutes, 10 more than Ness and 18 that Sarcevic, with a success rate of 77.4%, higher than both the others whose averages are in the 60s. He provides Argyle with the foundation to progress forward with the ball and a viable alternative to simply launching the ball towards Taylor in the hope he will win a knock-down. Meanwhile, Sarcevic and Ness do the hard work to protect the defence – they both average over 16 turnovers per 90 minutes, more than double that of Fox. Aside from the hard graft, they both provide support to the attack – Sarcevic making runs to create space for Carey and Lameiras while supporting Taylor, Ness more often making third man runs to get on the end of moves – see his equalising goal at Shrewsbury as an example.

The trio were firmly at the heart of Argyle’s almost unstoppable run to the play-offs, until injury took down Sarcevic and then Ness towards the end of the season. Conor Grant has been brought in to reinforce the ranks this year and another is expected on loan (a few names are already circulating), so hopefully the injuries the derailed the start and end of last season can be avoided this time around.

You had a lot of changes in the goalkeeping department last year. Do you expect Wolves loanee Harry Burgoyne to be number one, or could there be an opportunity for Michael Cooper?

Adams won’t say it, but it seems Burgoyne will almost certainly be first choice. He was linked with the club last season when the ‘keeper crisis was in full swing, but the move never materialised for whatever reason – now it appears Adams has his man. He’s got the frame Adams is looking for – nobody in the squad is taller – and has yet to put a foot wrong in pre-season (at the time of writing), though he obviously has yet to be challenged seriously.

The #1 shirt is already his and I really can’t see Letheren challenging him to be first choice – shot stopping his greatest strength but his mobility and footwork weren’t good enough last season, especially compared to Matthews. I’ve no doubt that Letheren will push for a starting spot, but unless Burgoyne turns out to be a dud I can’t see him being anything other than backup.

Cooper, meanwhile, I expect will be in the reserve squad. Adams has already revealed that he will have a first team squad of 24, and when you do the maths that leaves Cooper as third choice, playing in the Central League and SWPL for much of the season. I don’t expect he will be allowed out on loan without a third keeper arriving in his place, especially after last season!

Gary Sawyer and Gary Miller always strike me as old-school full-backs; the latter has left this summer. With Joe Riley and Ashley Smith-Brown coming in, is Derek Adams looking to get more out of his full-backs in possession?

To be fair, Miller was never first choice last season. His opportunities in the first half of the season derived from Threlkeld’s near five-month injury, and he even lost his position to Sawyer – a left back – following suspension. Though I would definitely classify Miller as an old-school defender, Sawyer is not entirely.

Yes, he does prioritise defence over attack, but he is comfortable when pushing forward and provides great delivery from out wide: there’s a reason he’s been involved in 21 goals over the past three seasons. However, the 4-3-2-1 system, requires two full-backs to provide width while Carey and Lameiras drift into space, and there is no doubt that Riley, Smith-Brown and Tafari Moore provide more of attacking threat than Sawyer or Miller. Despite that, don’t be surprised if Sawyer maintains his position going into the first game at Walsall. Even if he does miss out to ASB, I fully expect him to win his place back on at least one occasion during the season.

You’ve lost arguably a key man in Sonny Bradley, but are you excited by the signing of Peter Grant? And do you expect one of the other new boys, Scott Wootton or Niall Canavan, to partner him at centre-back?

Losing Bradley was certainly a blow as he was a very good player, but centre-backs are ten-a-penny in the lower leagues and Bradley was apparently headed for the non-leagues before Adams resurrected his career, so I see no reason why he can’t be replaced, just as Argyle and numerous other clubs have replaced several key players over the past few seasons.

I fully expect that Ryan Edwards will don the “magic hat” in his place – possibly the captain’s armband too – so I believe that leaves the fight on among Wootton, Peter Grant (one of three Grants at Argyle this season) and Canavan for the spot alongside him. It’s too early to predict any of this with much accuracy (the friendlies against Yeovil and Torquay will give the earliest indication) but I think Edwards will be partnered by Canavan at Walsall on the opening day. He’s regularly played at left centre-back at League One level for the past four seasons, has a 5cm height advantage over Wootton and Grant, and a good goal scoring record of one goal every ten games in this division.
Having said that, both of these positions, as well as the full-back spots, are clearly up for grabs, and I certainly don’t expect the partnership that opens the season together to be the same one that closes it. Each of the defenders will surely get their chance at some point (injury permitting), it’s about taking it and keeping their spot.

Argyle aside, what are your thoughts ahead of the League One season as a whole? Any potential dark horses for you?

I don’t really want to reveal my predictions right now – many sides are still looking to make key signings which could alter the balance of power in League One before the season kicks off. However, I expect Luton’s season to mirror that of Portsmouth’s last year, Peterborough to sack Steve Evans before January and Wycombe to buck the trend of promoted sides escaping relegation.

If I were to pick a dark horse it would be Bristol Rovers, mostly because of Darrell Clarke. Bury proved last season that you can spend as much as you like to assemble a squad for promotion, but if you have the wrong men – or the worst manager in the UK – in charge then it means very little (Bradford are possibly in danger of learning that lesson next season), but Clarke has proved himself as an accomplished lower league manager and his recruitment has been good so far. There are still areas to improve in their squad, but their budget appears to be increasing year on year, so I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple of good players came in to finish off the team.

Where will you finish?

I expect Argyle to finish between 5th and 10th. There is no doubt in my mind that this is the strongest squad at Home Park since 2010, yet another sign of the gradual financial recovery of the side. The strength in depth that was missing in certain positions last season has been mostly addressed and I’m sure some budget will have been set aside for some inevitable mid-season signings too. With the whole side back to full fitness, a stronger squad than last season and Carey and Lameiras fit and firing, there’s no reason Argyle can’t finish fifth – or higher.

Thanks to Nick for his answers. The Football Lab’s verdict on Plymouth can be found on We Love Betting from late July.